Outfielders

Outfield is the deepest position - tiers will be difficult, so I'll just break it down by who falls in what round on average.

5. Grady Sizemore - I don't know if I would take him at #5 overall. True, he is a 30/30 guy with 40/40 potential. He will get 100+ runs and RBI. But his EqAVG the last 3 years has not topped .280, and he is projected with an average of only .269 this year. He is a solid first round pick, don't get me wrong - it is just that it would be more of a slam dunk #5 with a higher average.
7. Ryan Braun - Another solid first round pick - 35-40 HR, 100 runs/RBI, 15 SB. The advantage he has over Sizemore is the average, which will be 25-30 points higher.
8. Josh Hamilton - Should come back down to earth this season, and that is not a drug joke. His average will be more in the .280-.200 range, don't expect another 130 RBI, and probably 25-30 HR. I wouldn't pick him over Kinsler/Rollins/Utley/Santana at this point. Then again, I could be proven wrong.

13. BJ Upton - Everyone has Upton in the teens in terms of overall rank, but I wouldn't do it. Could steal over 40 bases, but the 15 HR and .270 average don't make him a second rounder for me. Carl Crawford will be available in the third round if you want that production, but have a better average.
15. Alfonso Soriano - A much better second round pick. 30/20/.280, 100 runs/RBI. Falling to 19 overall in drafts because of his down year last year.
18. Carlos Beltran - Roughly the same as Soriano - His PECOTA projections: 27 HR, 18 SB, .293, 106 runs, 96 RBI. Really, if you want to take him over Soriano at this point, I say do it - Beltran will be on base more but will have a couple fewer HRs and SBs.
22. Carlos Quentin - Really exploded last year. I would be surprised if he could repeat his performance, and personally I would let someone else take that risk. Then again, that person might be rewarded with 35-40 HR late in the second round. PECOTA - 23HR, 77 RBI, 78 runs, .273 average - those are not second round projections. Let's just say - he was the highest ranked player not kept in my keeper league.

25. Carlos Lee - I am hoping he returns to form after his injury last year and posts another 30 HR 100 RBI .300 season. If he keeps the pace he had last year over the whole season, he is a second round pick next season. His age is somewhat of a concern though in terms of keeper leagues.
27. Carl Crawford - PECOTA is not keen on Crawford this year - 10 HR, 30 SB, .276 average. I think he will kill those projections though - a good third round pick, but I am not chomping at the bit to draft him there at the same time.
28. Manny Ramirez - Do it. Second round. He was the #3 overall guy last season. He is awesome - ignore the off the field stuff and draft him. He is being drafted ahead of the last 3 guys on average. 30+HR, 100+ RBI, .300 average. Boston thinks he was a "cancer" - let's compare: since 1918, with Manny, 2 World Series crowns; without Manny, 0 World Series crowns.
30. Jason Bay - Manny's "replacement" in Boston. He is just like Manny, minus about 25-30 points of average, 5-10 HR fewer, 10-20 fewer RBIs, and about 70 points off the OPS. So basically the same guy. I wouldn't spend a third rounder on him.
31. Vlad Guerrero - He is apparently a year older than we thought. Should be around .300, 20-25 HR, 80 runs, 100 RBI. No longer a threat on the basepaths. Third round is too high for Vlad too - I wouldn't.
33. Ichiro - Did you know he is 35 years old? I don't think he is a viable fantasy option anymore, mainly because of where he is ranked and where he is being drafted. Only hit .310 last year (I say "only" because we are used to like .350 with this guy), and he is only projected to steal 20 bases. Little to no power. Let the guy who is autodrafting get this guy in your draft.
34. Nick Markakis - Wow - the third round is really full of OFs that I wouldn't draft. 20 HR, 10 SB, .286 average, 96 runs 89 RBI - again, not a third rounder for me.
35. Matt Holliday - Will not play half his games in Colorado this year, but will be playing for a contract. If he can get his PECOTA projections, he is a steal, but they are based on him playing in Colorado. Should hit for a high average, 30 HR 100 runs/RBI. This is a third round outfielder for sure.
36. Matt Kemp - are we still in the third round range? Kemp has suggested he could go 40/40 at some point, and is a great keeper. Leagues just for this year though - 20 HR, 30 RBI, and a .290 average are more likely. A great third round OF again. Of the 9 OFs listed in the 25-36 range, I would rank: Manny, Lee, Holliday, Bay, Kemp, Crawford, Vlad, Markakis, Ichiro.

42. Curtis Granderson - You should like Curtis as a person - great guy, hard worker, etc. As a fantasy player, expect .275, 20/20. If he shows more patience at the plate, he could get to 100 runs. Solid, but I think 4th round might be iffy for me. If he slips to the 5th round, do it.
43. Alex Rios - .275, 20/20 guy. This is why he is ranked the same as Curtis.
47. Shane Victorino - .290, 15 HR, 30 SB. I would draft him before the last 2 guys.

51. Jacoby Ellsbury - .290, 40-50 SB. Will carry you in steals, help in average and runs. But 10 HR is a stretch, so the RBIs will be only around 50 or so. If you draft him, you need to grab a power guy to balance him out. If you do, you will be set.
53. Alexei Ramirez - Draft him as a middle infielder, not as an OF.
55. Nate McLouth - 20/20, .285. Good pickup here in the 5th round. My strategy is to grab 20/20 guys, and the Hardball Times just had an article saying McLouth is for real.
56. Corey Hart - More of a 25/25 guy, .290 average to boot. I like him over the last 6 guys, actually. If the 5th round sees you without an OF (which is a good strategy, btw), Hart is the guy I would want.

61. Hunter Pence - 25/10, .285 average. Solid for what you can get out of an OF at this point of the draft.
62. Magglio Ordonez - Stay away. I love the Tigers, but he is high risk, 35 years old, 20 HR .300 average.
66. Adam Dunn - I love Dunn in 5x5 leagues. He will carry you in HR. The guy to grab if you got Ellsbury in the last round. I would expect more of a .250 average instead of a .230 average, but 40 HR 100 RBI are par for the course with Dunn.

76. Jermaine Dye - 25 HR, .270 average, no speed, not a lot of runs. 7th round - look elsewhere.
78. Jay Bruce - .280, 30 HR, double digit SB - great 7th round pick. You can even target this guy and pick him up in the 6th if you want.
83. Ryan Ludwick - will not be available in the 7th round. His numbers last year were stupid. Even though he hit .299 last year, PECOTA has him at .264(!). He won't go 104/37/113 again this year.
84. Vernon Wells - Don't do it. Average is too low, won't get 20 HR or 10 SB this year.

94. Bobby Abreu - Don't do it. More like a 150 pick than the #94 guy, and is overrated because of his name. I don't see him putting up 100/20/100/20/.300 again. Another 35 year old - his numbers are on the decline.

102. Lastings Milledge - Slipping in drafts, but will give you what Abreu does, and has a higher ceiling. If you are a fan, wait until the 10th/11th round if you want.

113. Torii Hunter - A perrenial 20/20 guy, may not get there this year. I would stay away, but someone will draft him before you have time to even debate it.
115. Chris Young - 25/20 guy, and if he gets his average up, he is a better pick than the last 4 guys. Tons of potential, only 25 years old.
116. Johnny Damon - Don't do it. Can score 100 runs because of the lineup he is in, but when he has 6 HR and 9 SB at the all star break, you will be wondering why you didn't draft Xavier Nady, who will share the Yankee outfield with him.

122. Raul Ibanez - His guitar has 7 strings! OK, follow me here - he will be overrated because of his history as an underrated fantasy player. His correct ranking this year is more like where he used to be rated when he was underrated. 20 HR, .275 average. Nothing special.
124. Nelson Cruz - By definition, a AAAA player. Meaning, he is awesome in the minors, then kinda so-so in the majors. Projected for 25 HR, 14 SB, 73 runs, 83 RBI, but only a .260 average. I would stay away, but I don't fault you if you draft him.
128. Jayson Werth - Injury risk, not a ton of reward. Stay away.
129. Justin Upton - I would do it in the 13th round here. Actually slipping to the 14th/15th range. 20/10 guy, .280 average. The league where I drafted him, he is my 4th outfielder, but a solid sleeper pick. Better than the last 4 guys.
131. Andre Ethier - .290 average, 15-20 HR - Solid pick here, especially if you need some help in the OF. Not a sexy pick, but he is 27 so he is about to hit his prime, and he won't hurt your team in any categories really.
132. Brad Hawpe - My pick for sleeper of the year in the OF potentially. He is a 14/15 round pick, but could have 30 HR. PECOTA loves this guy, and projects 23 HR in only 500 PAs. If he stays healthy, 100/30/100 is possible.

137. Connor Jackson - Good average, average HR - again, not a high ceiling type of pick, but you know what you are gonna get.

145. Mark DeRosa - No.
160. Milton Bradley - DeRosa's teammate, and a much better pick here. 80/25/80. Can get 8-10 steals, hit close to .300. Better than the last 2 guys for sure.
165. Xavier Nady - Won't run, but will hit .275 with 20 HR. Runs/RBI will just happen when you play for the Yankees.
168. Pat Burrell - 25-30 HR with a .230 average. If you need power, he is a great pickup.

169. Denard Span - Tons of potential, but overrated at this point in his career. I wouldn't do it, but at this point of the draft, you can take risks if you want.
173. Rick Ankiel - .260, but 25 HR. Plus, it is frickin' Rick Ankiel. Do it.
180. Hideki Matsui - Do not draft.

181. Adam Jones - No, not that one. Actually a big sleeper candidate - 20/10/.280. I like him. Great 4th OF to draft.
185. Shin-Soo Choo - Actually a potential sleeper. I am not huge on this guy, but 15/10/.280 is probable.
187. Elijah Dukes - Seperate real life from fantasy baseball for this asshole - 20/20/.280 potential.
188. Willy Tavares - Will steal 60 bases this year and hit 1 HR. If you have loaded up on guys like Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds, draft this guy for your steals.
189. Nick Swisher - .230 average, 25 HR. If you can make up for the average, do it.
192. Adam Lind - 14 HR, 3 SB, .272 PECOTA. Meh.

OK - at this point, I am going to other notables:
193. Delmon Young - 15-20 HR and SB, .280 average - sleeper pick here.
201. Cameron Maybin - The Marlins gave up on Cabrera for this guy - 15-20 HR, 20+ SB, .260s average - solid pick if you need a 4th OF or an injury replacement.
214. Jeremy Hermida - 15-20 HR, decent average.
248. Travis Snider - PECOTA likes him for 23 HR and a .250 average.
253. Carlos Gomez - Cheap source of steals, but not much else.
254. Jack Cust - Could have 30 HRs, but won't hit .240.
275. Michael Bourn - Amnesia, but another cheap source of steals.
280. Randy Winn - Close to a .300 average and some SB.

All in all, by the end of the draft, you will have at least 4 guys who can play OF. There are so many. Hope this helps, but I really just did it so I could get ready for my 2 drafts on Sunday!

Coming next - pitchers!