Catchers

So I have decided to post about my upcoming fantasy baseball draft as a way of thinking out loud and doing research at the same time. I think maybe literally no one will care about what I am about to write, but whatever.

With Yahoo drafts, the drafting is different than if you get 12 guys in a room to randomly pick their teams. You have to follow yahoo's rankings, see where people are getting drafted, draft the guy you want in the round before he is normally going, and let others draft the overrated guys. It is simple, and I am just going to share my strategy which leads me to win a lot of the time, because I love fantasy baseball like a huge stats geek should.

All the rankings will be Yahoo's; PECOTA is a way of forecasting a player's stats for the upcoming season using a bunch of factors; VORP is Value Over Replacement Player; PA = plate appearances; OPS = OBP + SLG. Hopefully that covers it.

Catchers:
Top 12 - this allows 1 per team, which is important because not many teams will carry an extra catcher. (Catcher is not a position where there is a lot of depth, but there is a danger of drafting too high.)
41. Russel Martin - My fantasy magazine also has him ranked as the highest catcher. Of course, they have him 93 overall. He will be the only catcher to contribute in terms of stolen bases - 21 and 18 the past 2 years. Could hit .300. He is listed as 3B too, but you shouldn't play him there ever.
44. Brian McCann - I would have him ranked as the #1 catcher. Martin is cool because of the stolen bases, but a catcher can't keep that pace up over a career. And 10-15 more stolen bases are fun, but McCann will also give you .300, then 25 HR and 100 RBI as opposed to Martin's 12-15 HR and 70 RBI. The thing is, I would never take Martin #41 overall, but I can see McCann here at 44 - that is late 4th round. If he is available in the 5th round, I would pull the trigger (same with Martin).
52. Joe Mauer - Yikes. The injuries scare me. He helps out a ton in average, even though PECOTA has him at .307 with only a 43% chance of improving. His projected 88 runs and 68 RBI will be fewer if he misses some time here at the beginning of the year. He will hit fewer than 10 HR too. I mean, not a bad catcher to have on your team, but 52 is way too high. Let someone else draft him.
54. Geovany Soto - Rookie of the Year and a Cub! I would consider him top 3 with Martin and McCann. Projects to 25 HRs, 85 RBI, and a .288 average, but has a high Breakout rate and should at the minimum improve. I would also go 5th round on Soto.
63. Victor Martinez - Nope. Not at 63. He had 2 HR in 294 plate appearances last season. I now there were injury issues and all, but I just can't justify drafting him this high. Sure, he may have 25 HR and 114 RBIs like in 2007, but his PECOTA is just too low. Especially with pick #63 in the early 6th round - there are plenty of better and safer picks available here.
90. Ryan Doumit - Eh. 15 HR last year, high average though. Not an 8th round pick.
107. Matt Wieters - The guy I covet most in my keeper league draft. 23 years old, he hit .365 in AA last year. That is an EqAVG of .349 - PECOTA has him at 31(!!) HR, 102 RBI, and a .311 average. Plus, he is starting the year in AAA because of something about salary arbitration, so people may not want him and he could slip. Ranked 107 but average draft position is 114 - 10th round. I would draft him immediately in the 10th round if not in the 9th.
138. Chris Iannetta - Solid. At 138, he is being drafted in the 12th round. Should have 15-20 HR next season, hit .285 or more, and he plays half his games in Colorado. May not get the same number of plate appearances as other catchers, but is a great keeper.
147. Bengie Molina - Iffy. Had a career high in PAs last year, but is 35 this season. People will draft him on the 15-20 HRs he has been hitting the last few seasons, but he should decline now as a mid-30s catcher. PECOTA has him with 10 HR and a .276 average. I say stay away - pick him up if your starter gets injured.
150. Jorge Posada - Hmm...37 this year and coming off an injury, but will get playing time and it is a good Yankees lineup. I say stay away based on his low projections and his low Breakout/Improve rates.
164. Mike Napoli - 20 HR in 274 PAs last season, 27 years old - I like this guy as a sleeper catcher. Especially with a 14th round average draft pick. Red flag is his relatively low BAs coming into last season, combined with his apparent bad throwing arm which will cut into his PT. If you have filled out your lineup pretty well but still need a catcher in rounds 13/14, pull the trigger.
205. Dioner Navarro - God knows why he is ranked as the 12th catcher. He is the 14th catcher taken on average, and is probably drafted by people who autodraft and don't prerank. PECOTA: 381 PA, 7 HR, 43 RBI, 38 runs, .259 avg.

Those are the top 12 - probably all are on teams if you are in a league. Here are the other notables:
207. AJ Pierzynski - Don't.
233. Pablo Sandoval - Yes. 22 years old, you will get him at catcher this year only because of the 11 games he played at that position last year. SF's starting 3B, projects to 15 HR, 74 RBI, .289 avg, 565 PAs. If you miss one out on Napoli, he is the next best available. A yahoo anomaly because of the catcher listing, so not a great keeper though. But whatever. But, the rest of the world has this secret too - he is drafted on average in the 15th round at 184.
239. Ramon Hernandez - Um, if you want. Maybe if your starter gets injured, but probably not even then.
240. Kelly Shoppach - Yes yes yes. I would rather have him over Victor Martinez. 21 HR last year in 403 PA. If you miss out on Sandoval, come here next.
246. Jeff Clement - Solid PECOTA projections of 16 HR in 426 PAs. If all else fails.
258. Jarrod Saltalamacchia - I drafted this guy to be my keeper catcher last season, but he didn't have the breakout season I wanted. I say stay away until he proves himself.
264. Yadier Molina - Just don't.
850. Pudge - Looked good in the WBC, but I just wouldn't. Remember, he was a Tiger last season - I saw firsthand. Trust me.
985. Jason Varitek - he is the 12th catcher drafted on average! WTF? Should hit .230 with 5 HR this season. There are better options.

So, in summation, McCann 4th-5th round, Martin 5th round if available, Soto 5th round, Wieters 9th-10th round, Iannetta 11th-12th round, Napoli 13th-14th round, Sandoval 14th-15th round,
Shoppach if all else has failed, in the 18th-19th round. If you miss them all...grab Jeff Clement Chris Snyder, Brandon Inge, or heaven forbid Pudge.